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Friday, June 5, 2015

Global Warming: Will Rising Temperatures Cause A Rise in Crime?

     On August 1, 2013, in the academic journal Science, three University of California at Berkeley researchers published an article entitled "Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict." The authors, based on their analysis of sixty other studies, conclude that even small increases in temperature causes rises in assaults, rapes, and murders as well as increases in group conflicts and war. The researchers believe this to be true in the United States and around the world.

     The authors' prediction of rising temperatures and rising crime rates assumes a global temperature increase of at least four degrees Fahrenheit over the next fifty years. The authors predict that between now and 2050, the world will experience a 65 percent increase in war and civil unrest. Citing spikes in assaults, domestic violence, rape, and murder in the United States during heat waves, the researchers predict that worldwide the rate of these crimes will jump 16 percent.

     Criminologists, psychologists, and psychiatrists have been arguing for decades over the causes of crime. Overpopulation, broken homes, failing schools, poverty, drugs, hormones, personality disorders, mental illness, depression, childhood abuse, pornography, guns, spiritual decay, and violent video games have been blamed for violent crime in the United States. Social Scientists have not been able to agree on why, since 1995, crime rates in America have generally declined.

     The truth is, no one has figured out why some people commit serious crime and others do not. Social scientists who study criminal behavior agree on just two things: young people commit more crimes than older citizens; and men tend to be more violent than women. When considering why people act the way they do, too many variables makes a unifying theory impossible.

     Now we have three academics--as far as I can tell none of whom is either a criminologist, psychologist, or psychiatrist--who claim that global warming is a key factor in the cause of violent behavior. These researchers are not only linking violent behavior to climate, they are telling us exactly how much crime will go up if the planet gets hotter.

     Over the years social scientists have published a lot of nonsense. This is particularly true when the subject involves the causes of crime. Based upon the reaction of other academic researchers to this new study, I am not alone in my skepticism of this global warming/crime hypothesis. I don't believe the key to understanding human behavior can be found in crime and weather statistics. 

1 comment:

  1. There are a lot of factors that can contribute to a rise in crime rate.

    ReplyDelete